NFL Week #9 Picks

Let me just jump right in with what I plan to be a weekly post during the rest of the NFL season.  I’ve been picking at a pretty decent clip this year and the table below is current through yesterday’s loss where I picked Alabama but was pleasantly surprised when Coach Miles’ team pull out that dredge of a football game in overtime.  The table also includes some random baseball games that I picked during the 2011 season.

Date         Win Loss         Push         Percentage
Today 0 0 0 0%
Yesterday 0 1 0 0%
Last Week 7 7 0 50.0%
Last Month 34 22 2 60.7%
Last 90 Days 60 36 3 62.5%
Last Year 60 36 3 62.5%
Lifetime 60 36 3 62.5%
Best Streak 59 30 3 66.0%

Seattle vs Dallas

I’m taking the Seahawks and 11 points in this one.  Dallas has only covered the spread one time this year when playing at home and the Over/Under is 42-45.  Yeah that’s an obscure stat but it jumped out at me.  The fact is that the Boys cannot spell consistency and they are easily the most choke prone team in the NFL.  The majority of their games this year have been 1 or 2 plays from going either way so 11 points is WAY too many for Romo to cover.

San Fran vs Washington

The 49s have been bucking the trend of West Coast teams struggling when they travel East and I think they cover the 4 points.  The power rankings at www.sportsbook.com have them as a 9 point favorite and I think Frank Gore has a big game.  The Skins are extremely dysfunctional and Shanahan’s ego will get him out-coached this week and their QB play will ensure they lose by a touchdown.

New York Jets vs Buffalo

Buffalo has the superior offense by 80 total yards and the inferior defense by 62 total yards but I still think they cover the 2.5 points they are giving away.  Specifically, the Jets run D has actually slipped a few spots below the Bills run D and Fred Jackson will continue his good year.  The Bills fans will be out in full throat and the white uniforms will seal the deal this afternoon.

Cleveland vs Houston

Hillis is out again this week so I’m confidently picking Houston to cover the 10.5 points they are giving away.  That’s a lot of points in an NFL game but their running game should be able to handle it.  The Cleveland Defense hasn’t been giving up an avalanche of yards but I think the their number goes up with a significant performance by the Houston backs today.

Atalanta vs Indianapolis 

I was really surprised this line wasn’t bigger than 6.5 points.  I know it’s a home game but it’s still in dome where the Falcons excel.  The stats from past games can all be thrown out the window since Manning was in on those games.  The Colts defense has given up and I would have been willing to give as many as 13 points in this game.  Falcons cover these points with no problem.

Tampa vs New Orleans

The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss to St. Louis so my first thought was to take them and give up however many I had to.  They are also playing at home which is another plus for them.  Tampa’s L. Blount is back this week and is said to have been working in 3rd down practice reps and will be playing a bigger role in the Bucs offense.  In the end, I decided the Saints just aren’t the same team as we’re used to seeing lately so I’m taking the Bucs, their BIG back and the points.

Miami vs Kansas City

Miami is terrible.  Both Defenses are bad, giving up 380 yards per game and 24 points.  T. Haley tried his hardest to mis-manage the clock and call stupid plays last week and M. Cassell was still able to pull out win against the Chargers (obviously with some help from Phillip Rivers).  I’m giving up the 4 points and picking KC to continue their streak.  Did I mention that Miami isn’t a good team?

Denver vs Oakland

The line is Oakland -7 and at first glance I would have thought they should be more of a favorite.  But, Carson Palmer will be making his first start and doing it without the help of Darren McFadden.  The Raiders once again lead the NFL in penalties and they will have to get this under control so they don’t put Palmer in bad spots.  Ultimately, it will come to Tebow and the fact that he cannot play quarterback in the NFL.  Add to that the fact that the Broncos coaches and front office aren’t setting him up to succeed with play calls and proper packages and I’ve got the Raiders covering the touchdown.

Cincinnati vs Tennessee

This one was mind-blowing.  Giving Cincy a field goal head start against the Titans is silly.  The Tennessee run defense is among the worst in league and Cedric Bensen is back this week for Cincy.  The Cincinnati run defense is among the best in the league and Chris Johnson is terrible.  I’m taking the Bengals to win the game outright.

Green Bay vs San Diego

Green Bay is 5.5 point favorite here and I’m taking them to cover it even though it does kind of look like a trap game.  Watching the Chargers and Norv Turner blow that game last week is just too hard to get out my mind.  The Chargers turnover differential is -.7 while the Packers is +1.1.  You cannot give Aaron Rogers the ball more than he deserves it and expect to win.  The Chargers are way to good at shooting themselves in the foot.

St. Louis vs Arizona

Even with S-Jax and the Rams coming off a huge win last week, the odds makers are making Arizona the favorite by 3.  I almost wanted to take to the Rams and the money line but decided that  a 3 point head start might behoove me.  The quarterback situation for  this game isn’t good and I’m giving the edge to St. Louis’s ground game.

Giants vs Patriots

I think I made this pick too early in the week.  I took the Pats to cover the 9 points but looking back I am not comfortable about it.  The Giants will harass him all game and the Golden doesn’t really play that well when he can’t sit back and go through his progressions.  This means that the Patriots will need to depend on the run.  On the other end, New England’s pass defense is horrid and Eli isn’t getting the respect he deserves as a passer this year.  If the Giants get up early and force the Patriots to pass 9 points is going to be A LOT to cover.

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh

This is always a fun game to watch.  Kind of flashback to what football is supposed to look like before all the wussification.  I’m taking the Steelers -3 for revenge from week 1.  Pittsburgh is different team than they were in week one and so is Balitmore.  Flacco has progressively gotten worse while Ben has been trending upward.  The Steelers are also at home.  If you were looking for a parlay this week I might consider taking the under in this game as well.  41.5 with these two shut down defenses looks like a decent bet.

Chicago vs Philadelphia

I am not a Cutler fan but the Bears have a couple of players returning that should help them on both sides of the ball Monday night.  Earl Bennett should make an impact on offense catching balls that have either been dropped or poorly thrown since week two and Matt Toeaina should help to keep McCoy from running all over the place like he has been doing lately.  The Eagles have won their last two games so they are due for a letdown game.  I wouldn’t take the Bears to win, but 8 points is enough of a cushion for me to lean their direction.

 

 

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