NFL Week #10 Picks

The NFL money-grab, Thursday Night Football games are starting up this week throwing a wrench into everyone’s fantasy and gambling routines along with making players, coaches and scouts, work on short rest.  All of that could actually be forgiven if it wasn’t for the wretched production and talent on the NFL channel.  The pregame crew still hasn’t figured out which camera to look into or when to start/stop talking after what, 6 years?  What happened when you left the Mothership Eisen?  The in-game guys sound like they are broadcasting from the hotel bathroom while watching another feed and then some graphic comes on the screen and the sound blows your beer off the coffee table like and old Maxell commercial.  Remember that game when there was no announcing at all?  Just the faint sounds of the game coming from the field mics?  Wasn’t so bad now that I think back.  [rant/]

Now that that’s over, I’m just going to post Thursday’s game first and come back and pick the rest later.

Oakland vs San Diego

You may not know this, but this game is kind of big deal.  The Raiders and Chargers are tied along with Kansas City at the top of the AFC West so the winner will gain a 1/2 game on KC and full game on the loser.  The line is Chargers -7 right now.  Rivers hasn’t had the best year so far in 2011 but I still have to give him the edge over Palmer who is obviously still knocking off some rust.  Add to that, the fact that Philip Rivers has a history of playing well in games that aren’t played on Sunday or Monday and Oakland has completely forgotten about Heyward-Bay lately and you get the Chargers winning by more than the needed 7 points.

Week 10 continued 11/11/2011…

Well, I was right about the Heyward-Bay thing.  Here is the breakdown current through yesterday.  I’ll finish up with the rest of picks below the table.  Started off pretty hot in the first half of the season.  Too hot maybe.  Last week was my first losing effort and I hope that I can get it back this time around.

Date  Win Loss Push Percentage
Today 0 0 0 0%
Yesterday 0 1 0 0%
Last Week 8 9 0 47.1%
Last Month 32 27 2 54.2%
Last 90 Days 68 44 3 60.7%
Last Year 68 44 3 60.7%
Lifetime 68 44 3 60.7%
Best Streak 67 39 3 63.0%

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati

The Steelers travel to Ohio installed as a 3 point favorite.  The Bengals have been a pleasant surprise this season but the best QB they have faced has been Buffalo’s Fitzpatrick and their schedule as a whole has been pretty weak.  The Steelers come in playing very well and Dalton hasn’t seen a defense like this one yet.  No matter how much he says the game is slowing down for him, I don’t see him beating this team.  I’m taking PIT and giving the points.

 

Denver vs Kansas City

The NFL version of the read-option offense was neat to watch last week, but it’s on film now, and the Chiefs have been studying up.  Kansas City is also coming off an embarrassing loss and should be looking to prove something.  A freshly shaven Coach Haley and his team should beat Tebow and cover the 3.5.

 

Jacksonville vs Indianapolis

Indianapolis is 0-9 this year & 2-7 against the spread.  Painter vs Gabbert means that this game will be won on the ground and the Jags have the advantage there.  Even when P. Manning was taking the snaps, Jacksonville gave the Colts some trouble so you can be sure that Painter will struggle.  Jacksonville is a 3 point favorite and I think they cover it with room to spare.

 

Buffalo vs Dallas

Dallas has been running the ball better over the last couple of weeks and Buffalo can be susceptible to the run.  Not as susceptible as the Cowboys secondary is to the pass though.  The scariest thing for a Cowboy fan has to be success because the team doesn’ t know how to handle it.  The letdown game is always lurking.  Their record proves it as they are 2-11 against the spread as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Buffalo +5.5 seems like the way to go here.

Houston vs Tampa Bay

Tampa cannot stop the run and they are missing DT Gereld McCoy.  Houston’s running back tandem will stay fresh and run all over Tampa on Sunday.  The Texans are 5-3 against the spread this year while the Bucs are 3-5 and I’m sticking with that trend.  Houston covers the 3 points on the road.

 

Tennessee vs Carolina

CJ looked better last week and that obviously works in the Titans favor.  Carolina’s run defense is pretty weak and that also works in Tennessee’s favor.  Carolina is 4-1 against the spread at home this year and Cam Newton is tough to bet against but I’m going to.  Tennessee has a history of playing well in games that don’t mean much and this is a non-conference tilt.  I’m taking 3.5 points and Tennessee.

 

Washington vs Miami

The Redskins have no Santana Moss and no quarterback to get him the ball if they did.  Miami is riding high in spite of being a terrible home team.  Their not that good on the road either.  Lets face it, both of these teams are bad.  The spread is 4 in favor of the home team, and I’m going to take the Dolphins to cover it.

 

New Orleans vs Atlanta

I’m really looking forward to this game as it should be fun to watch.  Atlanta is tough to beat at home and I can see Michael Turner having a big game giving the Falcons an early lead.  The Saints feel very comfortable on the turf in a dome as well though. Drew Brees has too many weapons and he knows how to take advantage of every single one.  Jimmy Graham catches the game winning touchdown and the Saints cover the 1 point they are giving up.

 

St. Louis vs Cleveland

Nobody in this game is worth a damn against the spread with only 2 wins between them.  Cleveland’s defense has been the highlight this season but they’ve got to deal with S-Jax and he is a beast.  Cleveland has no running game to counter with and McCoy doesn’t really looked poised to do much.  Cleveland is favored by 3 but I’m picking St. Louis and taking the points.

 

Arizona vs Philadelphia

14 points is A LOT to give up in an NFL game and that’s what Philly is assigned to cover this week.  Teams live and die by the quarterback and Colb just cannot get the job done even with Larry Fitzgerald as his goto WR.  Beanie Wells has been running the ball pretty well but it’s tough to run when your down double digits very early in the game like the Cardinals will be.  I’ve got to think that Vick and McCoy have big games and win this game by at least 15.

 

Baltimore Seattle

You can always bet against teams that are leaders in penalties and turnovers and Seattle ranks among the leaders in both catagories…leaders in bad way that it.  The Seahawks are playing at home and that’s why the spread is only 6.5 oints.  Flacco should be feeling very good about himself and I don’t foresee Ray Rice having any trouble either.  Baltimore covers the 6.5.

 

Detroit vs Chicago

This is another game I’m looking forward to.  Detroit is coming off a BYE week and the Bears are working on a short week.  The Lion’s D-Line powned the Bears O-Line in their first meeting and I expect more of the same this time around.  Soldier Field isn’t exactly a fast surface and big plays are usually hard to come by, but Calvin Johnson is an exceptional player capable of anything.  Detroit wins this game outright even though they are a 3 point dog due to the Chicago home field advantage.

 

New York Giants vs San Francisco

The 49s are 7-0 against the spread this year. Ahmad Bradshaw is out for Sunday so Bradon Jacobs will be getting the full load of carries against a punishing run defense.  Frank Gore was held out practice of the week but is listed as probable and looking to extend his streak of games with 100 yds rushing.  When he hits that mark the Niners are 22-7.  The Giants give up 126 yds per game at a 4.6 per carry clip.  I’m taking the 49s to cover the 3.5 on the back of a Teddy Ginn return TD.

 

New England vs Jets 

A must-win game for the Jets, Rex knows how to beat the Golden Boy, and you know he wants to bad.  I can’t wait to see the blitz packages that he puts together for this game.  The Jets have gotten back to the run game so Sanchez hasn’t been much of a factor but I think even the he can throw against the Patriots secondary.  I look for the Jets to try to grind the game to a halt so I’m not looking for a shootout.  That would play into the Pats hands.  I’m taking the Jets +1.5.

 

Minnesota vs Green Bay

The Vikings go to Lambeau a 13 point dog.  The Pack’s defense needs some work and I think A.P. is just the man to scare them a bit.  The Vikings still lose Monday Night, and Green Bay gets one more game close to perfect ,but it’s closer than 13.

 

 

 

 

 

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NFL Week #9 Picks

Let me just jump right in with what I plan to be a weekly post during the rest of the NFL season.  I’ve been picking at a pretty decent clip this year and the table below is current through yesterday’s loss where I picked Alabama but was pleasantly surprised when Coach Miles’ team pull out that dredge of a football game in overtime.  The table also includes some random baseball games that I picked during the 2011 season.

Date         Win Loss         Push         Percentage
Today 0 0 0 0%
Yesterday 0 1 0 0%
Last Week 7 7 0 50.0%
Last Month 34 22 2 60.7%
Last 90 Days 60 36 3 62.5%
Last Year 60 36 3 62.5%
Lifetime 60 36 3 62.5%
Best Streak 59 30 3 66.0%

Seattle vs Dallas

I’m taking the Seahawks and 11 points in this one.  Dallas has only covered the spread one time this year when playing at home and the Over/Under is 42-45.  Yeah that’s an obscure stat but it jumped out at me.  The fact is that the Boys cannot spell consistency and they are easily the most choke prone team in the NFL.  The majority of their games this year have been 1 or 2 plays from going either way so 11 points is WAY too many for Romo to cover.

San Fran vs Washington

The 49s have been bucking the trend of West Coast teams struggling when they travel East and I think they cover the 4 points.  The power rankings at www.sportsbook.com have them as a 9 point favorite and I think Frank Gore has a big game.  The Skins are extremely dysfunctional and Shanahan’s ego will get him out-coached this week and their QB play will ensure they lose by a touchdown.

New York Jets vs Buffalo

Buffalo has the superior offense by 80 total yards and the inferior defense by 62 total yards but I still think they cover the 2.5 points they are giving away.  Specifically, the Jets run D has actually slipped a few spots below the Bills run D and Fred Jackson will continue his good year.  The Bills fans will be out in full throat and the white uniforms will seal the deal this afternoon.

Cleveland vs Houston

Hillis is out again this week so I’m confidently picking Houston to cover the 10.5 points they are giving away.  That’s a lot of points in an NFL game but their running game should be able to handle it.  The Cleveland Defense hasn’t been giving up an avalanche of yards but I think the their number goes up with a significant performance by the Houston backs today.

Atalanta vs Indianapolis 

I was really surprised this line wasn’t bigger than 6.5 points.  I know it’s a home game but it’s still in dome where the Falcons excel.  The stats from past games can all be thrown out the window since Manning was in on those games.  The Colts defense has given up and I would have been willing to give as many as 13 points in this game.  Falcons cover these points with no problem.

Tampa vs New Orleans

The Saints are coming off an embarrassing loss to St. Louis so my first thought was to take them and give up however many I had to.  They are also playing at home which is another plus for them.  Tampa’s L. Blount is back this week and is said to have been working in 3rd down practice reps and will be playing a bigger role in the Bucs offense.  In the end, I decided the Saints just aren’t the same team as we’re used to seeing lately so I’m taking the Bucs, their BIG back and the points.

Miami vs Kansas City

Miami is terrible.  Both Defenses are bad, giving up 380 yards per game and 24 points.  T. Haley tried his hardest to mis-manage the clock and call stupid plays last week and M. Cassell was still able to pull out win against the Chargers (obviously with some help from Phillip Rivers).  I’m giving up the 4 points and picking KC to continue their streak.  Did I mention that Miami isn’t a good team?

Denver vs Oakland

The line is Oakland -7 and at first glance I would have thought they should be more of a favorite.  But, Carson Palmer will be making his first start and doing it without the help of Darren McFadden.  The Raiders once again lead the NFL in penalties and they will have to get this under control so they don’t put Palmer in bad spots.  Ultimately, it will come to Tebow and the fact that he cannot play quarterback in the NFL.  Add to that the fact that the Broncos coaches and front office aren’t setting him up to succeed with play calls and proper packages and I’ve got the Raiders covering the touchdown.

Cincinnati vs Tennessee

This one was mind-blowing.  Giving Cincy a field goal head start against the Titans is silly.  The Tennessee run defense is among the worst in league and Cedric Bensen is back this week for Cincy.  The Cincinnati run defense is among the best in the league and Chris Johnson is terrible.  I’m taking the Bengals to win the game outright.

Green Bay vs San Diego

Green Bay is 5.5 point favorite here and I’m taking them to cover it even though it does kind of look like a trap game.  Watching the Chargers and Norv Turner blow that game last week is just too hard to get out my mind.  The Chargers turnover differential is -.7 while the Packers is +1.1.  You cannot give Aaron Rogers the ball more than he deserves it and expect to win.  The Chargers are way to good at shooting themselves in the foot.

St. Louis vs Arizona

Even with S-Jax and the Rams coming off a huge win last week, the odds makers are making Arizona the favorite by 3.  I almost wanted to take to the Rams and the money line but decided that  a 3 point head start might behoove me.  The quarterback situation for  this game isn’t good and I’m giving the edge to St. Louis’s ground game.

Giants vs Patriots

I think I made this pick too early in the week.  I took the Pats to cover the 9 points but looking back I am not comfortable about it.  The Giants will harass him all game and the Golden doesn’t really play that well when he can’t sit back and go through his progressions.  This means that the Patriots will need to depend on the run.  On the other end, New England’s pass defense is horrid and Eli isn’t getting the respect he deserves as a passer this year.  If the Giants get up early and force the Patriots to pass 9 points is going to be A LOT to cover.

Baltimore vs Pittsburgh

This is always a fun game to watch.  Kind of flashback to what football is supposed to look like before all the wussification.  I’m taking the Steelers -3 for revenge from week 1.  Pittsburgh is different team than they were in week one and so is Balitmore.  Flacco has progressively gotten worse while Ben has been trending upward.  The Steelers are also at home.  If you were looking for a parlay this week I might consider taking the under in this game as well.  41.5 with these two shut down defenses looks like a decent bet.

Chicago vs Philadelphia

I am not a Cutler fan but the Bears have a couple of players returning that should help them on both sides of the ball Monday night.  Earl Bennett should make an impact on offense catching balls that have either been dropped or poorly thrown since week two and Matt Toeaina should help to keep McCoy from running all over the place like he has been doing lately.  The Eagles have won their last two games so they are due for a letdown game.  I wouldn’t take the Bears to win, but 8 points is enough of a cushion for me to lean their direction.