NFL Week #10 Picks

The NFL money-grab, Thursday Night Football games are starting up this week throwing a wrench into everyone’s fantasy and gambling routines along with making players, coaches and scouts, work on short rest.  All of that could actually be forgiven if it wasn’t for the wretched production and talent on the NFL channel.  The pregame crew still hasn’t figured out which camera to look into or when to start/stop talking after what, 6 years?  What happened when you left the Mothership Eisen?  The in-game guys sound like they are broadcasting from the hotel bathroom while watching another feed and then some graphic comes on the screen and the sound blows your beer off the coffee table like and old Maxell commercial.  Remember that game when there was no announcing at all?  Just the faint sounds of the game coming from the field mics?  Wasn’t so bad now that I think back.  [rant/]

Now that that’s over, I’m just going to post Thursday’s game first and come back and pick the rest later.

Oakland vs San Diego

You may not know this, but this game is kind of big deal.  The Raiders and Chargers are tied along with Kansas City at the top of the AFC West so the winner will gain a 1/2 game on KC and full game on the loser.  The line is Chargers -7 right now.  Rivers hasn’t had the best year so far in 2011 but I still have to give him the edge over Palmer who is obviously still knocking off some rust.  Add to that, the fact that Philip Rivers has a history of playing well in games that aren’t played on Sunday or Monday and Oakland has completely forgotten about Heyward-Bay lately and you get the Chargers winning by more than the needed 7 points.

Week 10 continued 11/11/2011…

Well, I was right about the Heyward-Bay thing.  Here is the breakdown current through yesterday.  I’ll finish up with the rest of picks below the table.  Started off pretty hot in the first half of the season.  Too hot maybe.  Last week was my first losing effort and I hope that I can get it back this time around.

Date  Win Loss Push Percentage
Today 0 0 0 0%
Yesterday 0 1 0 0%
Last Week 8 9 0 47.1%
Last Month 32 27 2 54.2%
Last 90 Days 68 44 3 60.7%
Last Year 68 44 3 60.7%
Lifetime 68 44 3 60.7%
Best Streak 67 39 3 63.0%

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati

The Steelers travel to Ohio installed as a 3 point favorite.  The Bengals have been a pleasant surprise this season but the best QB they have faced has been Buffalo’s Fitzpatrick and their schedule as a whole has been pretty weak.  The Steelers come in playing very well and Dalton hasn’t seen a defense like this one yet.  No matter how much he says the game is slowing down for him, I don’t see him beating this team.  I’m taking PIT and giving the points.

 

Denver vs Kansas City

The NFL version of the read-option offense was neat to watch last week, but it’s on film now, and the Chiefs have been studying up.  Kansas City is also coming off an embarrassing loss and should be looking to prove something.  A freshly shaven Coach Haley and his team should beat Tebow and cover the 3.5.

 

Jacksonville vs Indianapolis

Indianapolis is 0-9 this year & 2-7 against the spread.  Painter vs Gabbert means that this game will be won on the ground and the Jags have the advantage there.  Even when P. Manning was taking the snaps, Jacksonville gave the Colts some trouble so you can be sure that Painter will struggle.  Jacksonville is a 3 point favorite and I think they cover it with room to spare.

 

Buffalo vs Dallas

Dallas has been running the ball better over the last couple of weeks and Buffalo can be susceptible to the run.  Not as susceptible as the Cowboys secondary is to the pass though.  The scariest thing for a Cowboy fan has to be success because the team doesn’ t know how to handle it.  The letdown game is always lurking.  Their record proves it as they are 2-11 against the spread as a home favorite over the last 2 seasons.  Buffalo +5.5 seems like the way to go here.

Houston vs Tampa Bay

Tampa cannot stop the run and they are missing DT Gereld McCoy.  Houston’s running back tandem will stay fresh and run all over Tampa on Sunday.  The Texans are 5-3 against the spread this year while the Bucs are 3-5 and I’m sticking with that trend.  Houston covers the 3 points on the road.

 

Tennessee vs Carolina

CJ looked better last week and that obviously works in the Titans favor.  Carolina’s run defense is pretty weak and that also works in Tennessee’s favor.  Carolina is 4-1 against the spread at home this year and Cam Newton is tough to bet against but I’m going to.  Tennessee has a history of playing well in games that don’t mean much and this is a non-conference tilt.  I’m taking 3.5 points and Tennessee.

 

Washington vs Miami

The Redskins have no Santana Moss and no quarterback to get him the ball if they did.  Miami is riding high in spite of being a terrible home team.  Their not that good on the road either.  Lets face it, both of these teams are bad.  The spread is 4 in favor of the home team, and I’m going to take the Dolphins to cover it.

 

New Orleans vs Atlanta

I’m really looking forward to this game as it should be fun to watch.  Atlanta is tough to beat at home and I can see Michael Turner having a big game giving the Falcons an early lead.  The Saints feel very comfortable on the turf in a dome as well though. Drew Brees has too many weapons and he knows how to take advantage of every single one.  Jimmy Graham catches the game winning touchdown and the Saints cover the 1 point they are giving up.

 

St. Louis vs Cleveland

Nobody in this game is worth a damn against the spread with only 2 wins between them.  Cleveland’s defense has been the highlight this season but they’ve got to deal with S-Jax and he is a beast.  Cleveland has no running game to counter with and McCoy doesn’t really looked poised to do much.  Cleveland is favored by 3 but I’m picking St. Louis and taking the points.

 

Arizona vs Philadelphia

14 points is A LOT to give up in an NFL game and that’s what Philly is assigned to cover this week.  Teams live and die by the quarterback and Colb just cannot get the job done even with Larry Fitzgerald as his goto WR.  Beanie Wells has been running the ball pretty well but it’s tough to run when your down double digits very early in the game like the Cardinals will be.  I’ve got to think that Vick and McCoy have big games and win this game by at least 15.

 

Baltimore Seattle

You can always bet against teams that are leaders in penalties and turnovers and Seattle ranks among the leaders in both catagories…leaders in bad way that it.  The Seahawks are playing at home and that’s why the spread is only 6.5 oints.  Flacco should be feeling very good about himself and I don’t foresee Ray Rice having any trouble either.  Baltimore covers the 6.5.

 

Detroit vs Chicago

This is another game I’m looking forward to.  Detroit is coming off a BYE week and the Bears are working on a short week.  The Lion’s D-Line powned the Bears O-Line in their first meeting and I expect more of the same this time around.  Soldier Field isn’t exactly a fast surface and big plays are usually hard to come by, but Calvin Johnson is an exceptional player capable of anything.  Detroit wins this game outright even though they are a 3 point dog due to the Chicago home field advantage.

 

New York Giants vs San Francisco

The 49s are 7-0 against the spread this year. Ahmad Bradshaw is out for Sunday so Bradon Jacobs will be getting the full load of carries against a punishing run defense.  Frank Gore was held out practice of the week but is listed as probable and looking to extend his streak of games with 100 yds rushing.  When he hits that mark the Niners are 22-7.  The Giants give up 126 yds per game at a 4.6 per carry clip.  I’m taking the 49s to cover the 3.5 on the back of a Teddy Ginn return TD.

 

New England vs Jets 

A must-win game for the Jets, Rex knows how to beat the Golden Boy, and you know he wants to bad.  I can’t wait to see the blitz packages that he puts together for this game.  The Jets have gotten back to the run game so Sanchez hasn’t been much of a factor but I think even the he can throw against the Patriots secondary.  I look for the Jets to try to grind the game to a halt so I’m not looking for a shootout.  That would play into the Pats hands.  I’m taking the Jets +1.5.

 

Minnesota vs Green Bay

The Vikings go to Lambeau a 13 point dog.  The Pack’s defense needs some work and I think A.P. is just the man to scare them a bit.  The Vikings still lose Monday Night, and Green Bay gets one more game close to perfect ,but it’s closer than 13.

 

 

 

 

 

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